Soft open for CES, befitting small jumps, stagflation
2009's Consumer Electronics Association show, the organization's 41st, has opened in Las Vegas with less fanfare and fewer events than in the past, with an emphasis on innovation rather than eye-popping great leaps forward.Improvements to existing technology, such as the SDXC card, which increases the capacity of the mobile storage device up to 2 terabytes, are the norm in a show featuring HDTVs, projection devices, touchscreens, and navigation systems that are appreciably snazzier than their predecessors but not paradigm shifters.
Other products, like the Powermat, which wirelessly charges devices like iPods, cellphones, and Blackberrys "by principles of magnetic induction," address consumers' need to scale down and spend less.Why? It's the economy.
"For every dollar decline in wealth, consumption decreases four to eight cents," said economist Shawn DuBravac, the CEA's chief financial analyst.
Still - and according to Consumer Electronics Association representatives - the economic downturn has not affected the public's willingness to buy big ticket items, only its drive to buy immediately.
"They know the price will go down, so they wait," said Steve Koenig, CEA director of industry analysis.
Analysts say that four trends in consumer technology will be at the forefront this year:
Green as a purchase factor - Polls show that women are more likely to consider a product's "greenness" when making purchasing decisions than men, but that men are learning that language, too. In a CEA study of 1,000 people, 22 percent said they would even pay up to 15 percent more for a product that was biodegradable, had a smaller carbon footprint, etc. "But consumers have a healthy skepticism about companies who hype their green credentials," said Koenig.Evolving command, control, and display - Input devices like touchscreens, voice, and even eye movement are competing with traditional methods to interact with our machines, Koenig said, and within five years some of those inputs will be on the level with the mouse and keyboard.
(No) Strings Attached - as wires come off, companies are thinking of the best ways to add services to converge and monetize relationships, such as downlaodable Netflix, Blockbuster, and Amazon movies. Products might literally have no wires or figuratively add connectivity through strategic partnerships.
The Embedded Internet - Internet-enabled devices, from personal GPS to toys to portable chat stations, will creep up on notebooks, which themselves have outpaced desktop computer sales.
CFA DuBravac estimates that the U.S. recesssion will end in June of this year, but an audience member pointed out that stagflation - the inability for the economy to get back on its feet because of factors such as consumer doubt leading to conservative spending, might chill innovation.
So the saying goes, when a fisherman is not at sea he is mending his nets. Net-mending behavior, such as the modest show floor advances at this year's CES, might make for more than one year of tech products reflecting lower expectations and greater need for economy.
See also: CES
Labels: CES, press, tech hysteria
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